Reference

Which weather station settles each temperature contract?

A temperature contract does not settle on a city. It settles on one specific weather station, read in one specific unit, from one specific source that the venue names in its rules. Kalshi and Polymarket frequently disagree on all three. This page lists every station the two venues currently settle on, what each of them resolves against, and how long observations take to become public.

Four cities, two answers

In these cities the two venues settle the same city name on different stations, several kilometres apart. On a normal day they land in the same bucket. On a day with a front, a sea breeze or a thunderstorm, they do not.

The venues also differ in what kind of source they read. Kalshi resolves United States contracts on the National Weather Service daily climatological report, which is compiled from the full one-minute record. Polymarket resolves on the station observation table, which is the hourly report stream. The first can print a daily high that never appeared in an hourly report.

Every settlement station

67 stations, 65 of them carried on the public METAR feed. Publication delay is the median time from the observation time inside a report to its arrival on the public NOAA feed, measured over 26 hours on 2026-09-16. It moves with upstream conditions and is not a service level.

Open a station