Reference

Which weather station settles each temperature contract?

A temperature contract does not settle on a city. It settles on one specific weather station, read in one specific unit, from one specific source that the venue names in its rules. Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and IBKR ForecastEx frequently disagree on all three. This page lists every station those venues currently settle on, what each of them resolves against, and how long observations take to become public.

Four cities, two answers

In these cities Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same city name on different stations, several kilometres apart. On a normal day they land in the same bucket. On a day with a front, a sea breeze or a thunderstorm, they do not.

The venues also differ in what kind of source they read, and that split does not follow the brand names. Kalshi and Polymarket US both resolve on the National Weather Service daily climatological report, which is compiled from the full one-minute record and can print a daily high that never appeared in an hourly report. Polymarket resolves on the station observation table, the hourly report stream. IBKR ForecastEx resolves on the Weather Underground daily history table, and lists a ladder of one-degree "exceeds X" contracts rather than ranges. Robinhood sells those same ForecastEx contracts: same ticker, same settlement, same price.

Every settlement station

76 stations, 73 of them carried on the public METAR feed and 3 read from their own public source. Publication delay is the median time from the observation time inside a report to its arrival on the public NOAA feed, measured over 26 hours on 2026-09-17. It moves with upstream conditions and is not a service level. “Early” means the report reached the feed before the observation time stamped in it.

Swipe the table sideways for every column.

Open a station

The 76 stations with live readings are live on every paid plan, and the 8 where the two venues disagree are live on the free one. See the plans — from $9.90 a month, cancel from the account portal.