76°F24.4°C · 13:00
High so far76°FDay ends at 78°F
- BucketMarketModel
- 74-75°F3%1%
- 76-77°F38%14%
- 78-79°F42%71%
- 80-81°F11%13%
- 82-83°F2%1%
LIVE BOARD FOR WEATHER CONTRACTS
The high prints.
You see it first.
A live board for temperature contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and IBKR ForecastEx, Robinhood’s included. The station’s reading is pushed the moment it lands, with the market price beside it.
- The exact station each contract settles on, not the city forecast
- Already in the venue’s unit and bucket, confirmed kept apart from touched
- The live market price beside every reading, and the model’s odds on one station a day, free
- 8 stations free to watch, no card
- 60sahead of the public feed, median
- ~20msreport to your board
- 76settlement stations, all live
CURRENT82.4°F28.0°CStandard feed6 min ago
RUNNING HIGH83°F28.3°CBucket 82-83°F
- BucketMarketModelΔ
- 82-83°F52%30%-22
- 84-85°F31%61%+30
- 80-81°F11%4%-7
- 86-87°F5%5%0
- 14:51Station observes 84.2°F; screens still show 82.4
- +124sFast feed on your board; the model moves
- +196sPublic report confirms the high; the market follows
Sample card · prices and model are illustrative
COVERS THE TEMPERATURE MARKETS ON
Kalshi
PolymarketPolymarket US
IBKR ForecastEx
Robinhoodresells ForecastEx contractsEXAMPLE · ONE DAY ON FOUR CARDS
The price, and beside it the model’s odds.
Illustrative numbers, not live data. The solid line is what the station has reported by then, the dotted line the rest of the day. Each bucket shows the venue’s price and the model’s probability; ✓ is the bucket that settled. Switch the time to watch the two close in.
Local time
60°F15.6°C · 13:00
High so far60°FDay ends at 62°F
- BucketMarketModel
- 58-59°F2%0%
- 60-61°F22%12%
- 62-63°F48%76%
- 64-65°F24%11%
- 66-67°F3%1%
71°F21.7°C · 13:00
High so far71°FDay ends at 75°F
- BucketMarketModel
- 70-71°F1%0%
- 72-73°F15%10%
- 74-75°F41%64%
- 76-77°F36%23%
- 78-79°F6%3%
86°F30.0°C · 13:00
High so far86°FDay ends at 88°F
- BucketMarketModel
- 84-85°F1%0%
- 86-87°F30%13%
- 88-89°F52%74%
- 90-91°F14%12%
- 92-93°F2%1%
The live board is free on eight stations. Desk shows the model on every station; any signed-in account can open it on one station a day.
Open the live boardWHY TRADERS LOSE
Where weather traders lose money.
Not on the forecast. On reading the wrong number, too late, in the wrong bucket, at the wrong price.
The usual wayWeatherTick
Too slow
The public pages update minutes after the station reports. By the time you see the new high, the price has moved.
We read NOAA's hourly file directly — a median 60s ahead of aviationweather.gov — and push each report to your board the moment it lands.
Wrong station
Kalshi settles New York on Central Park, Polymarket on LaGuardia. Your weather app shows neither.
Every card is tied to the exact station and document that contract settles on.
Wrong bucket
°F or °C, 2° or 1° buckets, rounding, the climate report vs the hourly table — one reading can pay out in two different buckets.
The running high is converted to that venue’s unit and bucket, with what is confirmed kept apart from what was only touched.
No edge
A 31¢ bucket is only cheap if the real chance is higher. Price alone does not tell you.
Our model’s probability for every bucket beside the market price, and the gap between them. Desk shows every station; any account can open one a day free.
Too many tabs
A weather site, Kalshi and Polymarket open side by side, and the numbers still matched by hand.
Reading, bucket and price on one card. Polymarket prices move about every second, Kalshi every 5 s.
Can’t watch them all
One city at a time, and the high that moves the market is rarely the one on your screen.
76 stations on four venues, up to 24 cards on one screen, the same board on every device.
SPEED, MEASURED
Same report. Who sees it first.
Seconds from the station’s observation to the reading being on screen. Median across stations; shorter is better.
Public aggregator (aviationweather.gov)256s
WeatherTick standard feed · every plan196s
WeatherTick fast feed · Desk, 33 stations124s
~20 msfrom a report reaching us to your open board, over a live socket
~1 sPolymarket prices; Kalshi every 5 s. No refresh button
20 minhow late Denver’s Buckley can run on the public feed — we show each station’s lag
Public baseline: median of 73 stations, measured 2026-09-17. Leads are paired measurements on the same reports; the fast feed wins most reports, not all.
SAME CITY, TWO ANSWERS
Same city. Different station.
In three cities Kalshi and Polymarket settle on stations kilometres apart. On a hot afternoon that is a different bucket. These eight stations are free to watch, Denver included: ForecastEx still settles it on Buckley.
New York
KNYCKLGA7.5 kmChicago
KMDWKORD24.4 kmDallas
KDFWKDAL18.6 kmTHE BOARD
One card. One contract. Read in a glance.
Add the contracts you trade from the market explorer, drag them into order, and leave the board open. It follows your account to every device.
CURRENT84.2°F29.0°CFast feed1 min ago
RUNNING HIGH84°F28.9°CBucket 84-85°F
- BucketMarketModelΔ
- 84-85°F74%81%+7
- 82-83°F17%12%-5
- 86-87°F7%6%-1
- 80-81°F1%1%0
Sample card · prices and model are illustrative
1
Station clock and market state
The card lights up through the station’s trading hours and turns gold when the venue has all but decided.
2
Current reading, and which feed
Fast or standard, and how many minutes old. A special report (SPECI) is marked.
3
Running high, in the venue’s bucket
Converted to that venue’s unit and bucket. If an off-schedule report touched a higher bucket than the hourly cycle confirmed, you see both.
4
Today’s curve
Every report since local midnight, with the running high drawn across it.
5
Price beside probability
The market’s top buckets, live. On Desk, the model’s probability for each and the gap — the number worth acting on.
PRICING
Start free. Pay for the edge.
One account for the board and the API. Move up or down a plan at any time.
Explorer
Free
Start free- Live board for the 8 split stations
- Venue prices, updating live
- Model odds on one station a day, free
- No card needed
Watch
MOST PEOPLE START HERE$9.90/ month
Subscribe- All 76 settlement stations, every one with live readings
- Running high in each venue’s bucket
- Confirmed vs touched, split
- Hourly forecast, US stations
- Model odds on one station a day, free
Trader
API STARTS HERE$19.90/ month
Subscribe- Everything in Watch
- 5 API keys, every endpoint
- Push stream, 10 stations
- 7-day observation archive
- Model odds on one station a day, free
- 150,000 API calls / month · 60/min
Desk
THE EDGE$79.90/ month
Subscribe- Fast feed on 33 stations, median 132s ahead
- Model probability vs market, per bucket
- Everything in Trader, 5× the volume
- 10 keys, stream over 25 stations
- 750,000 API calls / month · 300/min
USD, monthly, taxes at checkout. Every line above works today; what is still being built is not listed. A downgrade takes effect at the end of the period you have paid for.
Monthly subscriptions renew automatically until canceled before the next charge. Refunds are available for duplicate charges or failure to provide the service, without limiting statutory rights. Read our Terms and Refunds & cancellation policy before paying. Contact support for help.
Building your own tooling? Browse endpoints, authentication and limits.
Explore the APIBefore you start
Is your number the settlement value?
No. It is the running figure from the station the contract names, converted to that venue’s unit and bucket. The venue’s own final source always governs — Kalshi’s climate report, for instance, can print a high the hourly reports never showed. We mark which document each venue settles on so you know what to check.
How much faster is it, really?
Measured, not promised. Our standard feed reads NOAA’s hourly cycle file, a median 60s ahead of aviationweather.gov (87 of 94 paired reports ahead, none behind). The Desk fast feed covers 33 stations and runs a median 132s ahead — but not on every report, so we sell it by the distribution, not per station. Once a report reaches us, the board has it in about 20 ms.
What do I get for free?
A live board over the 8 stations where the venues settle the same city on different stations — New York, Chicago, Denver and Dallas — with venue prices moving live, and the model’s odds on one of them a day. Sign in with Google, GitHub or email; no card.
Where does the model come from?
It is our own, trained on the station’s history and updated through the day from live reports. It gives a probability for each bucket in the venue’s own buckets. It is a second opinion beside the price, not a promise. Desk shows it on every station; any signed-in account can open it on one station a day.
Which plans include the API?
From Trader up. Explorer and Watch are the board and issue no keys. Trader adds keys, every endpoint, the push stream and stored history; Desk is the same API at 5 times the volume, plus the fast feed. The model’s probabilities are on the Desk board.
How reliable is it?
Readings come from a single dedicated collector server that reads every upstream source. It writes each report to its own disk before sending it here, and every five minutes checks what the site holds and re-sends anything missing — so the archive fills whether or not anyone has the page open, and a dropped link refills on its own. If the collector process stops, it restarts automatically within about ten seconds, and it starts itself after a reboot. Every reading on the board carries its observation time, so a pause shows rather than hides.
Open the board before the next high prints.
Free for the eight split stations. No card.
Start free